Many persons in South Western Nigeria erroneously assume that, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be victorious at the Presidential Polls come January 16, 2027.
This assumption is fuelled by what they refer to as the invincibility of Mr. President and the All Progressives Congress (APC) grandstanding buoyed by supposed party structures, presided over by APC Governors.
In fact, Governor of Edo State, Senator Monday Okpebholo who has been in the media for the wrong reason since APC’s tragic outing in the Osun Governorship Election has threatened to resign as Governor if Tinubu loses in 2027.
If only he makes good this threat, it would have been really nice. But, knowing most politicians for what they are, it is better to just quietly allow Okpebholo continue in his daydream.
Such that, I do not delve into arena of strategy, I will limit myself to facts and figures from recent events with striking resemblance, suggesting that, those who believe that, President Tinubu will win again may receive the shocker of their lives when the results are announced. Tinubu himself has publicly said, he is not Goodluck Jonathan, who could not secure a second term for himself.
His declaration is not different from the man in Yoruba fable who declared himself a warrior without fighting any war (Eni Ija o ba, tin pe ra re l’okunrin). He is yet to secure a victory, so making mockery of a complete gentleman, whose conduct after the 2015 Presidential election earned him a place as a Global Statesman is not only misplaced but also flawed. Only time will tell.
Charity they say, begins at home, so, let me begin with Ondo State. In the run up to the 2015 general elections, the ruling party in the State then, Labour Party (LP) collapsed its structures to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the party that controlled the Federal Government. The general assumption was that, opposition had vapourised, hence Goodluck Jonathan would easily coast home to victory. That election was presided over by a PDP Governor, but the PDP lost to APC that was yet to find its bearing in the State at the time.
Muhammadu Buhari (APC)-299,889 votes to Goodluck Jonathan’s (PDP)-251,368 votes. The PDP lost to in-fighting, very similar to what is happening in the ruling APC now. I leave the details for another day.
Transformation Ambassadors for Nigeria (TAN) a support group floated by Andy Uba, an oil magnate from Anambra State, had a sprawling Estate in Maitama, Abuja as National Secretariat, with screaming billboards everywhere in Nigeria. Endorsements were across every village and community. I doubt if the billboards I have seen of Tinubu equal the TAN record.
At the cradle of Yoruba civilisation Ile-Ife, on 7th March, 2015, the then Ooni of Ife, Oba Okunade Sijuade, Olubuse II, along with a gathering of prominent Yoruba traditional rulers gave Goodluck Jonathan royal blessings for the 2015 presidential election.
The royal blessings did not appear to amount to much. Yet, it was another show of support that must have cost Nigerian’s taxpayers huge sums. Nobody can estimate how much must have gone down the drain with all the fake endorsements and support groups sprouting everywhere for President Bola Tinubu. If the past is anything to go by, the outcome is predictable.
Fast forward to 2019 when Muhammadu Buhari sought a second term as a sitting President complemented by an APC Governor in Ondo State. The assumption was a total annihilation for the opposition parties at the poll. The election results proved the exact opposite. Atiku Abubakar (PDP) scored 275,901 votes to Muhammadu Buhari’s (APC) 241,769 votes. To add salt to injury, the PDP won two of the three Senatorial seats in the State. That, both the Federal and State mights dissolved in the face of a very articulate and enlightened voting public is a credit that must go to the Ondo State people.
In the build up to the 2027 election, I have seen this same pattern emerging. The un-initiated can say whatever he likes with his mouth, but those who know can already predict with mathematical exactitude, how events will unfold.
Every election comes with its peculiarity and dynamics. Nigerians have endured the lies and propaganda to prop up the present APC administration at all levels. The people’s verdict is that, Tinubu and his APC have no human face. Most families are barely existing, unable to live the life deserving of human beings. Unfortunately, because, they are insulated from the everyday worries of Nigerians, they think the few privileged individuals in the corridors of power would secure victory for the APC.
In 2023, Mr. Peter Obi presented himself to Nigerians using the Labour Party platform. Speaking figuratively, one can say, he had no teeth to bite. Some said, he had no structures necessary to win the national elections, but he polled votes that stunned everybody-6,101,533. Now using though a relatively new platform but registered more than 18 million members in 3 weeks, the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Presidential ticket of Peter Obi/ Rabiu Kwakwanso has already created jitters in the Tinubu’s Presidential Villa in Abuja.
2027 Polls will confound a lot of people. For now, I leave out the How?
– Kennedy Peretei ( Chairman, NDC, Ondo State )
