The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa upward by 0.2 percentage points from its April projection, acknowledging the region’s resilience amid global economic challenges.
The Fund attributed the improved outlook partly to adjustments in global energy supplies and the ability of private businesses to adapt to the economic impact of the conflict involving the United States and Iran.
Since late February, oil, gas and fertilizer prices have risen sharply, increasing economic pressure on African countries that rely on imports of these essential commodities.
Speaking to the Agence France-Presse (AFP) at the IMF headquarters in Washington, the Fund’s Africa Director, Zeine Zeidane, said the region’s growth remained insufficient to significantly improve living standards despite its ability to withstand repeated economic shocks.
Zeidane warned that, at the current pace, it could take sub-Saharan Africa nearly 50 years to double its per capita income, compared with about 15 years for Southeast Asia.
He noted, however, that several African countries had maintained economic growth while improving their public finances through fiscal consolidation and increased domestic revenue collection.
Despite these gains, debt servicing continues to place considerable pressure on government budgets. Zeidane said the burden averaged about 12 per cent of gross domestic product, reaching as high as one-third in some countries.
He warned that governments’ borrowing requirements were absorbing a significant portion of available credit, limiting access to financing for private businesses and other productive sectors.
The IMF director also highlighted the shortage of institutional investors, including pension funds and corporations, as a major obstacle to developing capital markets and mobilising domestic resources.
Beyond financial challenges, the Fund warned that climate-related threats could undermine Africa’s economic prospects. The anticipated El Niño phenomenon could disrupt agricultural production and electricity generation, particularly in southern Africa, while triggering droughts in some areas and flooding in others.
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Zeidane cautioned that these disruptions could drive up food prices, placing additional pressure on households across the continent.
The Fund also expressed concern over an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, warning that difficulties in containing the disease could have consequences for neighbouring countries.
The IMF stressed the need for African countries to strengthen domestic financing, sustain fiscal reforms and prepare for climate-related and public health emergencies to support more robust and inclusive economic growth.
